Area / 01
Forecast
Seasonal regression, and Croston for intermittent demand, chosen by a rolling backtest. Accuracy and bias are reported against a naive forecast, which is often harder to beat than expected.
Solution · Decision module · Supply & Planning
Demand you can serve, stock you can justify.
The Supply & Planning module covers forecast to stock, order to cash and the inputs to S&OP. Forecasts are chosen by backtest against a naive baseline, inventory policy is set per SKU, and excess stock is valued as capital tied up, never as profit.
Area / 02
Inventory health
Days of inventory against policy, the share of SKUs above policy, stock-outs, stock stuck in the channel, and how much of the excess comes from forecast bias.
Area / 03
Service level and safety stock
Safety stock and reorder points derived from a target service level, with coverage policies by ABC-XYZ class.
Area / 04
Order to cash
Receivables aging next to inventory, so the working capital picture is complete.
Decisions it covers
The planning decisions, as math.
DecisionQuestion it answersMethod
Forecast
Which forecast should planning trust?
Rolling backtest against a naive baseline · WMAPE and bias
Inventory policy
How much should each SKU hold?
Safety stock from service level · ABC-XYZ and newsvendor coverage
Excess and stuck stock
Where is capital tied up, and why?
Days of inventory against policy · channel stock · bias to stock
Working capital
What does fixing it free up?
Valued as one-off capital, never as recurring profit
S&OP gap
Where do demand, target and capacity disagree?
Actual against target against capacity
In development: constrained S&OP planning and forecast challengers. Delivery service (OTIF and fill rate) is reported only when delivery data is measured.
Sales and stock in. A plan you can serve out.
It reads
- 01Sales historyBy SKU, site and period
- 02Stock positionsAt your sites and in the channel
- 03Lead times and targetsService level by class
- 04ReceivablesAging by customer
It returns
- 01A forecast that beat the baselineOr the baseline, if nothing did
- 02A policy per SKUSafety stock and reorder point
- 03Capital tied upOne-off, by cause
- 04The S&OP gapDemand, target and capacity
Start with
Supply
A Value Tree in Supply & Planning sizes the capital and the service at stake in 14 days.